Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

When  Lord Beaconsfield (Benjamin Disraeli to you and me!) uttered the quote in the title of this piece, he was expressing a cynicism rare for his time. At a time of great polarity ( maybe even bipolarity? ) in British politics, it was still widely accepted that reported facts were true. In those halcyon days before spin-doctors and lobbyists, protagonists may have disagreed as violently as today, but by and large the facts were agreed on.

In the current growth/recession/double-dip debate the extent to which the truth is the victim is being shown up more and more daily. In one of Terry Pratchett's books he defines the smallest measurable unit of time as the interval between a new York traffic light turning green and the taxi behind hooting. That has now changed - the smallest recorded interval now is the gap between a major piece of economic news and the first comment starting with the word "but".

I would not want to understate the complexity of modern economic systems and, equally, I see the Law of Unintended Consequences everywhere - far more the Adam Smith's dead hand. However (see - I am trying not to use the "b" word!), it seems that bedlam breaks out at every new set of numbers.  So often the debate seems more like the wonderfully named Diet of Worms - where Mediaeval Bishops debated how many angels could dance on the head of a pin - than an attempt at rational interpretation.

In the last week we have had a slew of numbers showing that the US is growing much more slowly than previously thought, that Germany was growing far more quickly and even this morning that the UK was growing a little more quickly than expected. Overall therefore we are being told that the huge economic stimulus packages of the last 18 months have kept the system alive but that things are tough still - errrrrrrrrr in what way is that news???? The deluge of Bear Porn that hits every figure, both good and bad is now getting positively silly and, as I have said before, I fail to see the point of the glee. Do the writers think that their foresighted rantings will get them a better cave, a warmer animal skin to wear and two square meals a week against one for the rest of us in their post-apocalyptic society? Unfortunately for them, those of us with family, financial obligations and social consciences will be trying (and most of the several billion people on the planet are in this category) to better things - not always with success, but at least trying. On a corporate level the same arguments will apply. Oh dear - the Lorry may be bearing down on us, but the doomsters seem not to have thought that we will simply get out of the way!

Give me facts as news and segregate the comment - from the BBC to Fox (and that is one hell of a jump) the journalists seem keener to get to their interpretation and pointless vox pop pieces  than to detail the facts.

Dum Spiro Spero