I often find myself defending my political views as it seems to be assumed that "City Types" are inherently of the right. My tendency is towards the left (as my tailor will confirm) in many ways and I have voted for a Labour candidate more often than a Conservative one.
I regard my enfranchisement as a rare and precious thing and strive with all my heart and (more importantly) mind to decide after as much and as deep contemplation as I can. I have canvassed for local Lib Dem councillors and have been, in my time, Deputy Chairman of my local Conservative Constituency Party. I regard this with pride as rational and not as vacillation. If circumstances change, so do my opinions - to paraphrase John Maynard Keynes.
As a result of this, I find the current tribal nature of British Labour politics all the more galling. In the aftermath of the style-over-substance reign of the image-obsessed Blair and the horrrific incompetence of Gordon Brown, who inherited from Ken Clarke an economy stronger than any time in the 20th Century, I find it inconceivable that anyone could have voted Labour, other than for a significant number (who exist on all sides) of exceptional constituency MPs. With a few shining exceptions, the present Parliamentary Labour Party is so clearly intellectually, morally and financially bankrupt that I found myself angry at the vox pop television interviews with lumpen morons who were proud to say "We are Labour in this family and have been for generations" Do we now have to worry about voting behaviour as a genetic disease?
Strangely enough, this pattern does not seem to be repeated on the right. Despite the lampoons of the percieved stereotype, the affluent (OK - I hate the phrase but let us call it middle class!) voting block seems much more prepared to move its allegiance according to issues. The anti - Iraq War movement was very much a middle-class one for example.
The recent election of a new leader for "New Labour" only serves to illustrate my worries further, The Miliband brothers are the sons of an infamous Marxist academic and although it might be disingenuous to expect the apples to fall too far from the tree,it seems to have been quietly brushed under the carpet in presenting their public images of late.
One can only hope that by the time the new leader of New Labour is old enough to start shaving he might have the maturity to eschew some of his inherited views. With an election process that so heavily involves the Trade Union movement, I will not hold my breath. I was very amused at this piece from The Daily Mash http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/miliband-to-organise-anti%11apartheid-disco-201009273118/
I was, not entirely out of malice, rather hoping the clever and articulate Ed Balls would become the new leader - if only for the "Balls" headlines in The Sun.
While all this is going on we have a group of capable people running the country whose internal divisions and debate are public and transparent. Vince Cable is my neighbouring MP and a very clever man, with whose opinions on UK Banking I disagree strongly. He can however, while running counter to the message of the ruling coalition, express those views cogently and to the great credit of the open system adopted by (or possibly forced upon) Downing Street by the realpolitik of coalition. The UK Press clearly have a problem with coalition, however. I wonder if the newsworthy attributes of adversarial tribal politics are a lot easier that doing some real thinking for the journos?
One final question. Am I alone in thinking that the order-paper waving, mooing and "hear-hear"ing pantomime that is parliamentary behaviour is odious and as much as an insult to the electorate as even the expenses scandal? I would like to respect our elected representatives and feel they at least respect each other. Perhaps we need to physically remodel the Commons (for God's sake - the lines on the carpet are to keep MPs a sword's length apart!!!) and censure disruptive behaviour.
Above all, can we try to end tribal voting?
Dum Spiro Spero
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Wednesday 29 September 2010
Tuesday 21 September 2010
Predictions, Crystal Balls and Total Balls
When I first came into the financial world of "The City" in the 1970's, it seemed in that far off time before personal computers and direct market access that the world was ruled by wise old heads whose wisdom was dispensed in bite-sized aphorisms of such blinding clarity and confidence that all I, a mere rookie, had to do was to look and learn from my betters.
It took me a very short period of time to realise that those same venerable grey heads were the ones that were being quietly ignored by the people doing the real work of poring over accounts and financial statements - and yet the equivalent is still the order of the day in the modern financial world. The main financial news services (and especially the full-time ones like Bloomberg and CNBC) would rather have a good story presented by some excitable doomster telling us the world is about to end or (more rarely except in the case of fringe investments, we all know that Gold is going to $10,000 don't we?) that everything is going to triple by thursday. Entertaining it certainly is, valid comment it might be, but a philosophy on which to base one's investments it most certainly isn't.
My post today is inspired by the number of otherwise credible people who have warned me that October is coming (duh? it is September, isn't that a fairly safe bet?) and that everything is going to crash at 2:36 pm on October 19th. 2010. The reason for this? - because 23 years ago on October 19th 1987 the US market plunged 23% in a few hours. The reason for this comparison is ... err ..... sorry, I will have to pass on that as there is clearly no correlation between markets or conditions then and now. I am also warned of the Hindenberg Omen - a wonderful title for a bad spy thriller perhaps, but in this case a pattern on the charts that presages the end of the world. I could go on ( do I hear some of you say that I always do? ) but I am in equal parts amused and quite angry at the total b*lls that I read as serious predictive research. This includes sunspot cycles, the Mayan Calendar, and numerology. To read simple astrological analysis seems quite sane by comparison.
A problem for many of us is that these dark arts do have a sane (well saner at least ) constituency - that of pattern recognition, usually called Chartism. For any historians among you, I would hate Chartists to be confused with the rabble-rousing mob that tried to overturn the social order in 1848 and who nearly brought the country to the same state of chaos that pervaded Europe during that year. Oh no, I would not want that to happen - the modern chartists are far worse and far more dangerous to your wealth.
Every Christmas a broker sends me a thing called the Stock Market Almanack (actually I think it is spelt almanac, but I do think my spelling brings out the occult aspect rather better). It looks at patterns and trends and quite clearly there are some that have validity at times, the famous and most reliable being "Sell in May and go away, don't come back 'til St. Legers day". Unfortunately however, this is far from clear in meaning The Saint's day is in March, the St. Leger race is run in early September. Even more annoyingly, although there is a statistically clear trend (assuming we are talking about the race day in September), the number of years on which this does not happen are so violently counter-trend that there is a significant risk of losing much more than could be made.
In case anything else I say is falling on deaf ears, let me state very clearly that in all my years of experience I HAVE NEVER MET A CHARTIST THAT HAS MADE MONEY - NEVER, NEVER. NEVER. Clear enough? I could go for King Lear's five consecutive "never"s - but even I can sometimes exercise restraint.
Predicting financial markets is a fascinating and frustrating business. There have been many gurus over the years and the only ones that ever seem to be consistent are those that follow money flows and look for value. Research the facts and the fundamentals. Simples!!
Do I hear (I ought to) some say that I should put my money where my mouth is and that it is easy to be negative about others without offering something better. If so, here goes...
My view is that current financial thinking among major economies is to prevent a double dip at all costs. The weapon of choice - a second round of quantitative easing or QE2 - is less effective now that the first shot has been fired, but it will be used even if less profligately that the first round. The objective of major western economies moving forward a little either side of 1.5% GDP growth is all that is required for at least 3-5 years. (I ignore the BRIC economies in this argument). This will mean interest rates staying artificially low for that period and devastating the yield still further on government and corporate bonds. Such stimulus will feather-bed some industries and the current yield of around 4% on equities will, in my opinion , ensure a reasonably firm equity market during this period - there is almost nowhere else to go! At the end of this period there is a clear inflation risk, but one we can address when it arises.
I doubt it will be an easy ride - the worries of the last few years have built a spookiness into the market that is quite remarkable. A few bad figures can spark of falls of 10% or more, but I see these as great buying opportunities. Markets are generally driven by changes in perception and it would be hard to ignore the negative perceptions abounding in some quarters. The bad news is, again in my opinion, overly discounted.
In any case, the Moon is in the 7th. house and the entrails of a freshly disembowelled goat clearly show that when Neptune aligns with a 200 day moving average of the sunspot activity, then the 5th Elliot Wave will likely be shown clearly through the Tarot.
Or am I just talking through Uranus?
Dum Spiro Spero
It took me a very short period of time to realise that those same venerable grey heads were the ones that were being quietly ignored by the people doing the real work of poring over accounts and financial statements - and yet the equivalent is still the order of the day in the modern financial world. The main financial news services (and especially the full-time ones like Bloomberg and CNBC) would rather have a good story presented by some excitable doomster telling us the world is about to end or (more rarely except in the case of fringe investments, we all know that Gold is going to $10,000 don't we?) that everything is going to triple by thursday. Entertaining it certainly is, valid comment it might be, but a philosophy on which to base one's investments it most certainly isn't.
My post today is inspired by the number of otherwise credible people who have warned me that October is coming (duh? it is September, isn't that a fairly safe bet?) and that everything is going to crash at 2:36 pm on October 19th. 2010. The reason for this? - because 23 years ago on October 19th 1987 the US market plunged 23% in a few hours. The reason for this comparison is ... err ..... sorry, I will have to pass on that as there is clearly no correlation between markets or conditions then and now. I am also warned of the Hindenberg Omen - a wonderful title for a bad spy thriller perhaps, but in this case a pattern on the charts that presages the end of the world. I could go on ( do I hear some of you say that I always do? ) but I am in equal parts amused and quite angry at the total b*lls that I read as serious predictive research. This includes sunspot cycles, the Mayan Calendar, and numerology. To read simple astrological analysis seems quite sane by comparison.
A problem for many of us is that these dark arts do have a sane (well saner at least ) constituency - that of pattern recognition, usually called Chartism. For any historians among you, I would hate Chartists to be confused with the rabble-rousing mob that tried to overturn the social order in 1848 and who nearly brought the country to the same state of chaos that pervaded Europe during that year. Oh no, I would not want that to happen - the modern chartists are far worse and far more dangerous to your wealth.
Every Christmas a broker sends me a thing called the Stock Market Almanack (actually I think it is spelt almanac, but I do think my spelling brings out the occult aspect rather better). It looks at patterns and trends and quite clearly there are some that have validity at times, the famous and most reliable being "Sell in May and go away, don't come back 'til St. Legers day". Unfortunately however, this is far from clear in meaning The Saint's day is in March, the St. Leger race is run in early September. Even more annoyingly, although there is a statistically clear trend (assuming we are talking about the race day in September), the number of years on which this does not happen are so violently counter-trend that there is a significant risk of losing much more than could be made.
In case anything else I say is falling on deaf ears, let me state very clearly that in all my years of experience I HAVE NEVER MET A CHARTIST THAT HAS MADE MONEY - NEVER, NEVER. NEVER. Clear enough? I could go for King Lear's five consecutive "never"s - but even I can sometimes exercise restraint.
Predicting financial markets is a fascinating and frustrating business. There have been many gurus over the years and the only ones that ever seem to be consistent are those that follow money flows and look for value. Research the facts and the fundamentals. Simples!!
Do I hear (I ought to) some say that I should put my money where my mouth is and that it is easy to be negative about others without offering something better. If so, here goes...
My view is that current financial thinking among major economies is to prevent a double dip at all costs. The weapon of choice - a second round of quantitative easing or QE2 - is less effective now that the first shot has been fired, but it will be used even if less profligately that the first round. The objective of major western economies moving forward a little either side of 1.5% GDP growth is all that is required for at least 3-5 years. (I ignore the BRIC economies in this argument). This will mean interest rates staying artificially low for that period and devastating the yield still further on government and corporate bonds. Such stimulus will feather-bed some industries and the current yield of around 4% on equities will, in my opinion , ensure a reasonably firm equity market during this period - there is almost nowhere else to go! At the end of this period there is a clear inflation risk, but one we can address when it arises.
I doubt it will be an easy ride - the worries of the last few years have built a spookiness into the market that is quite remarkable. A few bad figures can spark of falls of 10% or more, but I see these as great buying opportunities. Markets are generally driven by changes in perception and it would be hard to ignore the negative perceptions abounding in some quarters. The bad news is, again in my opinion, overly discounted.
In any case, the Moon is in the 7th. house and the entrails of a freshly disembowelled goat clearly show that when Neptune aligns with a 200 day moving average of the sunspot activity, then the 5th Elliot Wave will likely be shown clearly through the Tarot.
Or am I just talking through Uranus?
Dum Spiro Spero
Friday 3 September 2010
Norman Tebbit, John Prescott and Integrity in politics
I have long wondered as to whether or not there has ever been personal warmth between Norman Tebbit and John Prescott. Despite apparently occupying positions at the extremities of the political spectrum, I have long regarded these two as beacons of integrity in that their positions and views are clear and forthrightly expressed. Their elevation to the House of Lords does make me believe a little more that there is hope for the bicameral system yet.
One observation that I feel is highly telling is that when asked a question, both will say "Yes" or "No" and then defend (who am I kidding? - they both only know how to attack!) their respective views. Not for them the Alastair Campbell approach of telling the questioner they are asking the wrong question (or more often answering a different question altogether).
When looking at the various reptilian Blair clones attempting to oil their way to leadership of the Labour Party at the moment, I am filled with despair for the future of that Party. Even the Beer and Sandwiches of the Wilson era is better than the sterile synthetic image-obsessed way they wish to do things. I am no socialist, but would rather the passion and honesty that generally informs that world-view than the cynical manipulation behind "Nu-Labour". Prescott at his pugnacious, English-mangling best had the fire and vision I want to see in politics, not the tedious junior middle-managers we are stuck with.
I have never met Prescott (although I would rather like to) - but I have met Tebbit a few times, first in the 80's when I was briefly involved with the Conservative Party and I seem to continually cross his warm tracks to a rather eerie extent - even to the point of nearly buying the house he now lives in, only rejecting it for reasons that included the kitchen units hand-painted with blood-red emulsion paint. I have also consoled the lovely Patrick at whom a kick was aimed by Lord T - the local restaurant owner is the last person I would knowingly alienate!!
My overwhelming impressiom of both men (especially Tebbit) that they actually listen and weigh - a rare thing in these days of political style over substance.
Suffering fools gladly is not the hallmark of strong men or women. We need more like them.
Dum Spiro Spero
One observation that I feel is highly telling is that when asked a question, both will say "Yes" or "No" and then defend (who am I kidding? - they both only know how to attack!) their respective views. Not for them the Alastair Campbell approach of telling the questioner they are asking the wrong question (or more often answering a different question altogether).
When looking at the various reptilian Blair clones attempting to oil their way to leadership of the Labour Party at the moment, I am filled with despair for the future of that Party. Even the Beer and Sandwiches of the Wilson era is better than the sterile synthetic image-obsessed way they wish to do things. I am no socialist, but would rather the passion and honesty that generally informs that world-view than the cynical manipulation behind "Nu-Labour". Prescott at his pugnacious, English-mangling best had the fire and vision I want to see in politics, not the tedious junior middle-managers we are stuck with.
I have never met Prescott (although I would rather like to) - but I have met Tebbit a few times, first in the 80's when I was briefly involved with the Conservative Party and I seem to continually cross his warm tracks to a rather eerie extent - even to the point of nearly buying the house he now lives in, only rejecting it for reasons that included the kitchen units hand-painted with blood-red emulsion paint. I have also consoled the lovely Patrick at whom a kick was aimed by Lord T - the local restaurant owner is the last person I would knowingly alienate!!
My overwhelming impressiom of both men (especially Tebbit) that they actually listen and weigh - a rare thing in these days of political style over substance.
Suffering fools gladly is not the hallmark of strong men or women. We need more like them.
Dum Spiro Spero
Thursday 2 September 2010
Is Patriotism the last refuge of a scoundrel?
Recently I have posted (and argued most strongly elsewhere) that the British national characteristic of pretend self-deprecation has developed to the point that a trickle has become a torrent of criticism out of all proportion to reality and has started to pervade thinking at a dangerously deep and subliminal level, especially where the economy and investment markets are concerned. Above all, this habit is developing in the face of comment from countries where optimism and hope are not regarded as somehow unsophisticated. Having said this, I remember lines from The Mikado (written in 1885) to be found in the "I've got a little list" song that bemoans the same thing. Perhaps it is wrong to stir this particular pot, but nevertheless it raises a few points that I think are interesting.
Having lived and worked in a number of countries, I am astonished by how much it is taken for granted that self-interest on a national level is part of the commercial mix. In Frankfurt there was an earnest adherence to the German stereotype where business was concerned, in Paris it was less earnest (and possibly less honest), in Brussels it was more about ripping off the Fleming/Walloon (delete as appropriate) and in Tokyo the assumption of racial superiority was frighteningly a product of being taught it in schools. The Brits? - we quote Dr. Johnson that Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel.
Living as I do for some of the year in Provence , I do have to say that the expat community is one I generally try to avoid. One of the commonest syndromes is to bang on about how awful the UK is and how it is finished. I can only speak for myself when I say that I can wake to a Cerulean sky, walk my clinically insane Springer in primeval woodland and eat/drink far better on a daily level than in the UK. This is, however, the hinterland of Jean-Marie LePen, where it is cheaper to hire a Moroccan/Algerian lad (a donkey in local speak) than to hire a digger; where one can encounter corruption in local government on even the smallest levels. (Want a new building? Just discuss with the mayor over a michelin-starred dinner!!!).
I have friends in the EBRD, the OECD and all over the Brussels beaurocracy who have for many years told me the same story - that figures and reports are quite deliberately weighted against the UK for political and/or commercial advantage.
I would assume Mr Expatriate's evident sense of superiority is the result of his education in the UK, his ability to enjoy it as a result of his treatment in the UK health system and his knowledge of things financial as a result of experience gained in the single most intensive and knowledgeable financial system in the world. (Why else do the pretenders to the throne keep knocking it?). Having seen three children through the UK school system, one stepson through an international hybrid and two through abitur, I know a little more than most about the pros and cons I feel.
When I return to the UK - normally colder, wetter and greyer than Provence (who am I kidding? - always!!) my sense of coming home is almost tangible.
I suppose this post is not really an investment topic - or is it? Our(?) country invests in us collectively, we take its benefits and work to improve it and to give something back, in tax, in education and possibly by charitable works. We also invest time in spreading knowledge in fora such as this.
I intend to work and die (hopefully in good health at a ripe old age and, if all my wishes were to be granted, with a beatific smile on my face in a scenario involving identical 18 year-old red-headed twins) in the UK. Am I thus one of Dr. Johnson's scoundrels?
More in sorrow than in criticism.
Dum Spiro Spero
Having lived and worked in a number of countries, I am astonished by how much it is taken for granted that self-interest on a national level is part of the commercial mix. In Frankfurt there was an earnest adherence to the German stereotype where business was concerned, in Paris it was less earnest (and possibly less honest), in Brussels it was more about ripping off the Fleming/Walloon (delete as appropriate) and in Tokyo the assumption of racial superiority was frighteningly a product of being taught it in schools. The Brits? - we quote Dr. Johnson that Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel.
Living as I do for some of the year in Provence , I do have to say that the expat community is one I generally try to avoid. One of the commonest syndromes is to bang on about how awful the UK is and how it is finished. I can only speak for myself when I say that I can wake to a Cerulean sky, walk my clinically insane Springer in primeval woodland and eat/drink far better on a daily level than in the UK. This is, however, the hinterland of Jean-Marie LePen, where it is cheaper to hire a Moroccan/Algerian lad (a donkey in local speak) than to hire a digger; where one can encounter corruption in local government on even the smallest levels. (Want a new building? Just discuss with the mayor over a michelin-starred dinner!!!).
I have friends in the EBRD, the OECD and all over the Brussels beaurocracy who have for many years told me the same story - that figures and reports are quite deliberately weighted against the UK for political and/or commercial advantage.
I would assume Mr Expatriate's evident sense of superiority is the result of his education in the UK, his ability to enjoy it as a result of his treatment in the UK health system and his knowledge of things financial as a result of experience gained in the single most intensive and knowledgeable financial system in the world. (Why else do the pretenders to the throne keep knocking it?). Having seen three children through the UK school system, one stepson through an international hybrid and two through abitur, I know a little more than most about the pros and cons I feel.
When I return to the UK - normally colder, wetter and greyer than Provence (who am I kidding? - always!!) my sense of coming home is almost tangible.
I suppose this post is not really an investment topic - or is it? Our(?) country invests in us collectively, we take its benefits and work to improve it and to give something back, in tax, in education and possibly by charitable works. We also invest time in spreading knowledge in fora such as this.
I intend to work and die (hopefully in good health at a ripe old age and, if all my wishes were to be granted, with a beatific smile on my face in a scenario involving identical 18 year-old red-headed twins) in the UK. Am I thus one of Dr. Johnson's scoundrels?
More in sorrow than in criticism.
Dum Spiro Spero
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