2010 will not be remembered fondly by many - especially those in the financial industry.
Although Stock Markets are ending the year on a high, there is little cheer to be found elsewhere. Bond yields are still way too low in many cases (with a few notable exceptions on the Corporate Bond side of things), deposit rates are effectively zero - and all this is happening as inflation is most definitely raising its ugly head once more.
I am deeply frustrated in that my model derivative portfolio is up 99.4% on the year - I would have sold my first-born into slavery to have got that 100% figure dammit! Interestingly, about 70% of the positions have been quite bearish. It is a testament to volatility that such success was achieved in a rising market.
The cash required to margin these positions was held primarily in Corporate Bonds and Bank "must pay" Preference Shares, with around 30% in cash at any time.
My only stock position of size to be held throughout the year was Indigovision (IND.L), which I still think is going to triple at least from here. In terms of trading, my biggest position was in BP which was bought heavily around 335-360p. as the market reacted to the iniquitous and unfair way in which Obama looked for any way of distracting his fellow morons from his failure. A nice quick 20% turn there.
If anyone wants details, please feel free to ask.
Next year? Avoid the US $ and US investments like the plague. If the debt chickens come home to roost - and China. not the US government has the keys - then we could see a major problem. Not more than a possibility - and one that would possibly take European markets some of the way with it - but one to be VERY cautious over. I fear we have a maximum of 200 points on FTSE to go, and with 500 points of "Noise" (see my thoughts on "Crevasse Investing" in an earlier blog) entirely possible, I will probably continue to play the main derivative element of my model portfolio from the short side.
More likely predictions are that by the early hours of the New Year I will see many Black Swans.
I will also most likely be seeing Pink Elephants, Green Hippos and Flying Pigs.
A Happy and Prosperous New Year to you all
Dum Spiro Spero (for the year ahead Dum Spiro Sperabo)
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Friday 31 December 2010
Wednesday 15 December 2010
Investment horizons and the paradigm for 2011 onwards.
Oh Dear! What a pompous title!
One of the things that upsets me continually is the sort of editorial comment that pushes a particular line as indisputable fact and makes no attempt at balanced debate. Recently I got an advertising supplement for "Money Week" that was well beyond laughable in its doom-laden predictions that we would all be in mud huts by the end of next year. As good fortune would have it, it was so silly and badly written that it would be very unlikely to be taken seriously by anyone and perhaps more likely to lead to cancelled subscriptions than new ones - so perhaps little harm done. This sort of comic and the less creditable discussion fora are being clogged up by extremist bears, which makes rational discussion rarer and rarer. In the interests of fairness however (see - I am trying!) I must add that they do get equally clogged by silly rampers in the good times. Bubble or bust? Didn't anyone point out that investment horizons tend to be between the two and that trend growth is positive in most time scales. Roubini is a clever man, but I think he regards his Black Swans as hybridised Golden Geese that sell books rather than more simple birds. I think the markets have had enough avian flu for one decade in any case.
Time to be concerned when you get this sort of drivel...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/8202251/Investors-told-forget-savings-accounts-think-of-shares.html
I tend to read the online versions of newspapers, partly because it avoids the inanities that are used to fill in the gaps in "rolling news" and partly because the content is cross-linked more easily. In the case in point, this was the main "story" for about 12 hours overnight. If one reads it, there is little or no attribution of this startling hypothesis other than the usual rent-a-quote stuff from third-line investment firms grateful to get their name printed in The Beano. Just step back and think about this - the nation's one remaining newspaper of record since Murdoch destroyed the Times TELLS YOU - not suggests, not comments - that "Investors told forget savings accounts, think of shares". To add insult to injury we are then told "experts said". Do these "journalists" have an IQ above room temperature? and are there competent editors in place to send them to cover fish prices in Grimsby until they learn their art?
2010 has generally been a year of Central Banks and Governments trying desperately to force interest rates lower, mainly by Quantitative Easing. Many nations, particularly the US, have spectacularly ignored Gresham's Law and tried to beggar their neighbours by devaluing their currencies. In the Antipodes and Far East we have seen the reverse happening, especially where a currency, such as the Australian Dollar is effectively commodity-backed. Towards the end of the year we have seen the Euro-bloc shaken as the inherent contradictions unwind. Much hysteria has been generated, but my feeling is that Germany, France and Benelux - the real core of the EU - have invested too much, and not just financially, to see the project fail. My feeling is that the PIIGS are more likely to be booted out than the core countries secede from the project. I do, however, think it is a close call and I would avoid exposure to this game until things are clearer.
For most of 2010 I have propounded the view that where equity markets are concerned, the "nowhere else to go" argument was the best I could come up with. We have seen layoffs and cost-cutting used to engineer much dubious bottom-line improvement, especially on Wall Street, and a yield of between 3-4% has been achievable in most markets. Compared to falling Bond Yields this was a no-brainer. I suspect things might be different in 2011. QE has planted the seeds of inflation in many economies and the USA, UK and Eurozone are all massaging their figures to try not to show it. Low rates are a key factor in the beggar-my-neighbour policies, but unsustainable in the context of a massive surge in money supply. Rates will undoubtedly rise considerably in 2011 and an outflow from equity markets may take place, particularly if fiscal tightening hits the "consumer" - an indicator I have always had little faith in as a serious economic measure (I think the "producer" is the one to watch!).
For a saver (and an ISA saver in the UK only has a 5 year maturity minimum) or investor, I would think that Corporate Bond yields are going to become very attractive relative to other asset classes.
Currency levels will take an unwontedly important place in the decision-making process. Not only do I think the US market may turn out to be one of the weakest, but with Moodys looking at stripping the US of its AAA+ status and an avowed policy to devalue the dollar, I fear the potential collapse in the US Dollar would more than outweigh yield considerations. I would avoid all US or Dollar-denominated investments in 2011.
I further think that Gold and Silver bugs will be in for a shock in 2011. The two factors driving the bubble - low interest rates and Far Eastern demand could evaporate in a moment as rates move up and India and China tighten even further. Yes - the "survivalists" will always argue for Gold, but those of us with waistcoats whose arms do not fasten behind our backs will, I think, see it otherwise.
As I look forward to 2011 as ever - Dum Spiro Spero
One of the things that upsets me continually is the sort of editorial comment that pushes a particular line as indisputable fact and makes no attempt at balanced debate. Recently I got an advertising supplement for "Money Week" that was well beyond laughable in its doom-laden predictions that we would all be in mud huts by the end of next year. As good fortune would have it, it was so silly and badly written that it would be very unlikely to be taken seriously by anyone and perhaps more likely to lead to cancelled subscriptions than new ones - so perhaps little harm done. This sort of comic and the less creditable discussion fora are being clogged up by extremist bears, which makes rational discussion rarer and rarer. In the interests of fairness however (see - I am trying!) I must add that they do get equally clogged by silly rampers in the good times. Bubble or bust? Didn't anyone point out that investment horizons tend to be between the two and that trend growth is positive in most time scales. Roubini is a clever man, but I think he regards his Black Swans as hybridised Golden Geese that sell books rather than more simple birds. I think the markets have had enough avian flu for one decade in any case.
Time to be concerned when you get this sort of drivel...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/8202251/Investors-told-forget-savings-accounts-think-of-shares.html
I tend to read the online versions of newspapers, partly because it avoids the inanities that are used to fill in the gaps in "rolling news" and partly because the content is cross-linked more easily. In the case in point, this was the main "story" for about 12 hours overnight. If one reads it, there is little or no attribution of this startling hypothesis other than the usual rent-a-quote stuff from third-line investment firms grateful to get their name printed in The Beano. Just step back and think about this - the nation's one remaining newspaper of record since Murdoch destroyed the Times TELLS YOU - not suggests, not comments - that "Investors told forget savings accounts, think of shares". To add insult to injury we are then told "experts said". Do these "journalists" have an IQ above room temperature? and are there competent editors in place to send them to cover fish prices in Grimsby until they learn their art?
2010 has generally been a year of Central Banks and Governments trying desperately to force interest rates lower, mainly by Quantitative Easing. Many nations, particularly the US, have spectacularly ignored Gresham's Law and tried to beggar their neighbours by devaluing their currencies. In the Antipodes and Far East we have seen the reverse happening, especially where a currency, such as the Australian Dollar is effectively commodity-backed. Towards the end of the year we have seen the Euro-bloc shaken as the inherent contradictions unwind. Much hysteria has been generated, but my feeling is that Germany, France and Benelux - the real core of the EU - have invested too much, and not just financially, to see the project fail. My feeling is that the PIIGS are more likely to be booted out than the core countries secede from the project. I do, however, think it is a close call and I would avoid exposure to this game until things are clearer.
For most of 2010 I have propounded the view that where equity markets are concerned, the "nowhere else to go" argument was the best I could come up with. We have seen layoffs and cost-cutting used to engineer much dubious bottom-line improvement, especially on Wall Street, and a yield of between 3-4% has been achievable in most markets. Compared to falling Bond Yields this was a no-brainer. I suspect things might be different in 2011. QE has planted the seeds of inflation in many economies and the USA, UK and Eurozone are all massaging their figures to try not to show it. Low rates are a key factor in the beggar-my-neighbour policies, but unsustainable in the context of a massive surge in money supply. Rates will undoubtedly rise considerably in 2011 and an outflow from equity markets may take place, particularly if fiscal tightening hits the "consumer" - an indicator I have always had little faith in as a serious economic measure (I think the "producer" is the one to watch!).
For a saver (and an ISA saver in the UK only has a 5 year maturity minimum) or investor, I would think that Corporate Bond yields are going to become very attractive relative to other asset classes.
Currency levels will take an unwontedly important place in the decision-making process. Not only do I think the US market may turn out to be one of the weakest, but with Moodys looking at stripping the US of its AAA+ status and an avowed policy to devalue the dollar, I fear the potential collapse in the US Dollar would more than outweigh yield considerations. I would avoid all US or Dollar-denominated investments in 2011.
I further think that Gold and Silver bugs will be in for a shock in 2011. The two factors driving the bubble - low interest rates and Far Eastern demand could evaporate in a moment as rates move up and India and China tighten even further. Yes - the "survivalists" will always argue for Gold, but those of us with waistcoats whose arms do not fasten behind our backs will, I think, see it otherwise.
As I look forward to 2011 as ever - Dum Spiro Spero
Tuesday 7 December 2010
What a gig! - who needs Glastonbury?? Drugs at Covent Garden!!
I recently pondered as to whether I might be regressing to my (distant) youth or just going through a mid-life crisis. Well here I go again.
I have been far from well for at least two weeks now. One week is more than enough - after two weeks everyone has run out of sympathy, my own feelings of cabin fever and not getting out are equalled only by the frustrations of Beau who turns from cute Springer to a lean, mean, ADHD machine.
So when, on Saturday I was offered a ticket to one of the hottest gigs around - I had to at least try to get out.
There follow a few lines that I might regret in times to come - but there I was sitting and soaking in some of the best music I have ever heard while stoned out of my head. Now, before they come to get me, I ought to offer a quick explanation. The gig was at the Royal Opera House Covent Garden and the pharmacological enhancement was enough Benylin/Strepsil cocktail to anaesthetise a moderately belligerent Ox.
At least I didn't get the giggles. The Opera - Adriana LeCouvreur - is by a follower of Puccini, one Francesco Cilea, whose obscurity is quite undeserved. Covent Garden threw the heavyweights at this one - Mark Elder in the Pit and Angela Gheorghiu opposite Jonas Kaufmann on stage. Uttterly captivating from Gheorghiu and even Kaufmann, who was clearly having throat problems (could he have got my bad chest that quickly from all the way up in the balcony?) towards the end was spell-binding. Why did I mention the giggles? Well it is the plot actually. If one were to ask non-Opera fans why they don't like Opera, one of the reasons commonly given is the utter stupidity of the plots. I can't argue with that in this case. At least we were not asked to believe that a hefty mezzo was an emaciated and tubercular teenager dying in a garret - but the dying, dear God, the dying!!!!
One of the aspects at Covent Garden that I remain unsure about is the surtitles. Having the English words above the stage is quite useful in less familiar cases or where the libretto is far from in sync with what is happening onstage - but can otherwise be distracting. Saturday was the first case where I saw them as an aid to comedic timing. In the last act of Adriana LeCouvreur, I regret to say that every cliche is taken out of the bag, dusted down and re-arranged for the big death scene. One could almost imagine the supporting members of the cast bringing in sandwiches and thermos flasks of hot tea as they settle in for the inevitable. The grouping, like a wicket-keeper, four slips and a gully around the heroine (and the only one who didn't know she had been poisoned) as she informed us she was dying in a significant and ever-more inventive number of ways was necessary so that the cast could indeed confirm that she was and that the process was far from over yet. As this went on ( let me try and be fair - the music and singing were sublime ) and I had got to the point of looking for the telephone number of the printer of the program, the typeface used and the flavours of ice-cream available during the intervals, suddenly there was a dramatic crash of orchestral noise and a stiffening of those on stage.
Unfortunately the critical moment was to have been announced by a baritone recitative "E Morta - She is dead"- instead it was up there above the stage first and a definite titter ran through the room.
I shouldn't be critical - even Beethoven couldn't do Opera - I mean am I alone in thinking I would rather spend a year in Guantanomo than sit through Fidelio?? Cilea's weakness to the cliches is forgiveable and forgiven. Cartoon-caper scenes apart, one hell of a gig!
Dum Spiro Spero
I have been far from well for at least two weeks now. One week is more than enough - after two weeks everyone has run out of sympathy, my own feelings of cabin fever and not getting out are equalled only by the frustrations of Beau who turns from cute Springer to a lean, mean, ADHD machine.
So when, on Saturday I was offered a ticket to one of the hottest gigs around - I had to at least try to get out.
There follow a few lines that I might regret in times to come - but there I was sitting and soaking in some of the best music I have ever heard while stoned out of my head. Now, before they come to get me, I ought to offer a quick explanation. The gig was at the Royal Opera House Covent Garden and the pharmacological enhancement was enough Benylin/Strepsil cocktail to anaesthetise a moderately belligerent Ox.
At least I didn't get the giggles. The Opera - Adriana LeCouvreur - is by a follower of Puccini, one Francesco Cilea, whose obscurity is quite undeserved. Covent Garden threw the heavyweights at this one - Mark Elder in the Pit and Angela Gheorghiu opposite Jonas Kaufmann on stage. Uttterly captivating from Gheorghiu and even Kaufmann, who was clearly having throat problems (could he have got my bad chest that quickly from all the way up in the balcony?) towards the end was spell-binding. Why did I mention the giggles? Well it is the plot actually. If one were to ask non-Opera fans why they don't like Opera, one of the reasons commonly given is the utter stupidity of the plots. I can't argue with that in this case. At least we were not asked to believe that a hefty mezzo was an emaciated and tubercular teenager dying in a garret - but the dying, dear God, the dying!!!!
One of the aspects at Covent Garden that I remain unsure about is the surtitles. Having the English words above the stage is quite useful in less familiar cases or where the libretto is far from in sync with what is happening onstage - but can otherwise be distracting. Saturday was the first case where I saw them as an aid to comedic timing. In the last act of Adriana LeCouvreur, I regret to say that every cliche is taken out of the bag, dusted down and re-arranged for the big death scene. One could almost imagine the supporting members of the cast bringing in sandwiches and thermos flasks of hot tea as they settle in for the inevitable. The grouping, like a wicket-keeper, four slips and a gully around the heroine (and the only one who didn't know she had been poisoned) as she informed us she was dying in a significant and ever-more inventive number of ways was necessary so that the cast could indeed confirm that she was and that the process was far from over yet. As this went on ( let me try and be fair - the music and singing were sublime ) and I had got to the point of looking for the telephone number of the printer of the program, the typeface used and the flavours of ice-cream available during the intervals, suddenly there was a dramatic crash of orchestral noise and a stiffening of those on stage.
Unfortunately the critical moment was to have been announced by a baritone recitative "E Morta - She is dead"- instead it was up there above the stage first and a definite titter ran through the room.
I shouldn't be critical - even Beethoven couldn't do Opera - I mean am I alone in thinking I would rather spend a year in Guantanomo than sit through Fidelio?? Cilea's weakness to the cliches is forgiveable and forgiven. Cartoon-caper scenes apart, one hell of a gig!
Dum Spiro Spero
Friday 3 December 2010
Dinsdale the Urban Warrior!
Sorry to have been off the air whilst suffering from "Man Flu". For those of you not familiar with this ailment - it is illustrated perfectly here.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hk5wScFGCjk
In the mean time the Wikileaks saga has rumbled on, giving me something else to think about when not clutching my throat or brow and whimpering pathetically like a puppy with a sore paw.
In particular, one thing to rouse me from my torpor today was the realisation that the company that holds the registration for Wikileaks - EveryDNS.net in California - has today cancelled their registration. I am, of course, entirely sure that this was in no way connected with an unprincipled attempt to stifle criticism on the part of the US administration - whose total commitment to honesty, integrity and the rule of law has been made totally clear over the last few days. How can anyone think that?
In my new role, which sits more than a little uneasily with the vision in the mirror of a paunchy middle-aged man, as Urban Warrior (do I have to get a nickname? Will Stampy do? - an in joke for those that know me well) I felt I would do my best to help those wonderful champions of democracy in the White House by doing my bit to undo the damage.
Losing their registration is not the end for Wikileaks - their servers are still going in Sweden with mirrors in other country. What has happened is the equivalent of tearing up the index card in the library - the material is still there - as can be seen here.
http://wikileaks.info/
or try the IP address
88.80.13.160
I am not a fan of what Assange is doing, but on balance I feel that gagging him is the greater evil. To misquote the X-files, "The Truth should be out there"
Dum Spiro Spero
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hk5wScFGCjk
In the mean time the Wikileaks saga has rumbled on, giving me something else to think about when not clutching my throat or brow and whimpering pathetically like a puppy with a sore paw.
In particular, one thing to rouse me from my torpor today was the realisation that the company that holds the registration for Wikileaks - EveryDNS.net in California - has today cancelled their registration. I am, of course, entirely sure that this was in no way connected with an unprincipled attempt to stifle criticism on the part of the US administration - whose total commitment to honesty, integrity and the rule of law has been made totally clear over the last few days. How can anyone think that?
In my new role, which sits more than a little uneasily with the vision in the mirror of a paunchy middle-aged man, as Urban Warrior (do I have to get a nickname? Will Stampy do? - an in joke for those that know me well) I felt I would do my best to help those wonderful champions of democracy in the White House by doing my bit to undo the damage.
Losing their registration is not the end for Wikileaks - their servers are still going in Sweden with mirrors in other country. What has happened is the equivalent of tearing up the index card in the library - the material is still there - as can be seen here.
http://wikileaks.info/
or try the IP address
88.80.13.160
I am not a fan of what Assange is doing, but on balance I feel that gagging him is the greater evil. To misquote the X-files, "The Truth should be out there"
Dum Spiro Spero
Tuesday 30 November 2010
Strange coincidence? Paranoia? - and what are the chances?
Yesterday I expressed my concerns at the serious damage the Wikileaks drip-feed would do to the diplomatic world and, in particular, to future relations with the United States.
Part of my theme was to express tremendous admiration for George Marshall, the man who conceived the Marshall Plan - the US-funded aid that helped rebuild Europe after World War 2. I don't think I pulled my punches about the way that once-great society has lost its way either.
Now comes the paranoia bit!! Within two hours of posting my blog I got an email from this organisation
http://www.marshallfoundation.org/
Who seem to have somewhat turned the Marshall agenda to the military/right's own viewpoint but, nevertheless are promoting a truly great man.
But TWO HOURS LATER? Spooky or what? Am I to assume that I no longer have to express my views here? If I speak directly to the light-fitting, will I save Langley time and effort?
I am a good swimmer and I like the sun - even so, I hope not to be taking a waterboarding holiday in Gunatanamo any time in the near future.
One final bitch - one of the less-publicized Wikileaks was that the Americans didn't like the extradition treaty - you know, the one they have not ratified that means that a British citizen can be deported with no evidence being presented but none of them are subject to - yes, that one.
Oh God!! A knock at the door.............
Dum Spiro Spero
Part of my theme was to express tremendous admiration for George Marshall, the man who conceived the Marshall Plan - the US-funded aid that helped rebuild Europe after World War 2. I don't think I pulled my punches about the way that once-great society has lost its way either.
Now comes the paranoia bit!! Within two hours of posting my blog I got an email from this organisation
http://www.marshallfoundation.org/
Who seem to have somewhat turned the Marshall agenda to the military/right's own viewpoint but, nevertheless are promoting a truly great man.
But TWO HOURS LATER? Spooky or what? Am I to assume that I no longer have to express my views here? If I speak directly to the light-fitting, will I save Langley time and effort?
I am a good swimmer and I like the sun - even so, I hope not to be taking a waterboarding holiday in Gunatanamo any time in the near future.
One final bitch - one of the less-publicized Wikileaks was that the Americans didn't like the extradition treaty - you know, the one they have not ratified that means that a British citizen can be deported with no evidence being presented but none of them are subject to - yes, that one.
Oh God!! A knock at the door.............
Dum Spiro Spero
Monday 29 November 2010
Wiki or Wicked?
Flash back to the year before I was born - 1951. Europe was still substantially in ruins, political unrest was rife, with extreme left or communist regimes springing up as a result of the manifest problems (although interestingly nowhere near as much as in 1917/8) everywhere.
One country above all, and a while before anti-communist paranoia peaked, saw the need for a strong independent Europe. That country, and its erstwhile leader Winston Churchill, realised it did not have the resources to do much more than look on and hope and instead turned its less limited diplomatic resources to slowly persuading the one country that did have the means and which was the only one to emerge stronger from World War Two - the USA - to abandon its initial Versailles-like instincts and to help rebuild Europe via the breathtaking scope of the Marshall Plan.
Critics have pointed out that the USA came out of WW2 stronger because of the scale of commercial activity that conflict presented to it - Lend/Lease was common but little was ever actually given to allies. It is also worth remembering that Germany was still paying reparations (not on the Versailles scale admittedly) until earlier this year. Gold reserves from allied countries were effectively confiscated as security for this help (including those of the UK) and there is therefore an argument that US activity was at least partly mercenary in nature.
Not one more word should leave this keyboard before presenting the other side of the case. WW2 is probably the nearest the world has ever come to a "just" war - and despite the odious right-wing and anti-Semitic views of the Kennedy and Ford clans, the USA did come to generally realise the evils being perpetrated by Germany at that time. Although entry into the war only came when its own self-interest was threatened by Japan, it is incontrovertible that a large number of brave Americans died in foreign theatres of war (what a horrible and misleading phrase that is!!) in pursuit of that conflict.
The problem with victory in any conflict is that it carries with it immense responsibilities towards the vanquished - as both Truman and Marshall nobly realised. Where I suspect they did not think forward enough was the effect on their own national psyche of coming to such power. The Cold War never seriously saw the military supremacy of the US or NATO challenged. The Russian threat had to be nuclear - their technologies and military structures would never have been able to sustain a conventional war and from this a misplaced sense of superiority arose, the ugly truth of which is now being trumpeted all over the world as a result of the Wikileaks fiasco.
Many years ago, in my University days at Oxford, I spent many long hours with friends from US universities, mainly Harvard and Princeton, that were close to tears because they had been unprepared for the much higher standards expected in the European system. Even now, the academic institution I remain associated with takes a much higher proportion of eastern European graduate students than Americans - for a number of reasons, none of which redound to the credit of the US educational system. What hurt my friends at Oxford most was the way they felt lied to - they really had been fed a daily diet of superiority. This is not a side-swipe but an observation about one of many ways that much of what is truly good and great about that country is lost to the need to tell each other daily how great they are, something that can only ultimately be born of insecurity.
One strange phenomenon gives me great hope - something seems to happen once Americans leave their shores. I would be fascinated to know what the democrat/republican split is among expatriates. My feeling is that the liberal/leftish tendency is much more heavily represented. Most also seem to feel that our standard of living in Europe is much higher - in which I concur, but that will inevitably be gainsaid by those deluded into believing it can be measured in mere money.
All of this is merely a background rumbling to my thoughts on the Wikileaks situation. The snake-oil salesman seems to have been revealed for what he is, and if one were to believe the world's press this morning, the borders are about to be shut up and the USA excommunicated from the communion of civilised societies. But is this fair or even reasonable?
Sir Thomas Gresham once defined a diplomat as an honest man sent abroad to lie for his country. Diplomacy is, by definition, a two-faced art. I should be proud the only exam I have ever failed in my life was the diplomatic service exam in that case! Of course the truth, or a version of it, is always going to be partly submerged in the demotic language and thoughts of those involved. In the dealing room of Lehmans in New York, Martin Luther King Day was referred to as "Some ****** died and we get a day off to go skiing" day. Yes the word had an "n" at the front and those responsible were not, to the best of my knowledge racist or bigots - it was the patois of the room, generally decent family men and women. Similarly I can see some of the comments revealed by Wikileaks being in the same vein - totally unacceptable, but only when released to the wider world.
Assange may have done nobody a service by these leaks - where do we go to express an unpopular view, where do we make the bad jokes? It was possible stupid to write some of the things being leaked, undoubtedly stupid not to keep them secure and horrifically stupid not to react with more humility when they did escape. Even so, I do not doubt that other security and diplomatic services have comparable skeletons in their cupboards. Anything that prevents anyone from expressing an honest opinion, no matter how distasteful, is to be deplored - and all the more so if that prevention takes the form of the opinion being expressed in carefully-redacted, politically correct new-speak, without passion or conviction.
Dum Spiro Spero
One country above all, and a while before anti-communist paranoia peaked, saw the need for a strong independent Europe. That country, and its erstwhile leader Winston Churchill, realised it did not have the resources to do much more than look on and hope and instead turned its less limited diplomatic resources to slowly persuading the one country that did have the means and which was the only one to emerge stronger from World War Two - the USA - to abandon its initial Versailles-like instincts and to help rebuild Europe via the breathtaking scope of the Marshall Plan.
Critics have pointed out that the USA came out of WW2 stronger because of the scale of commercial activity that conflict presented to it - Lend/Lease was common but little was ever actually given to allies. It is also worth remembering that Germany was still paying reparations (not on the Versailles scale admittedly) until earlier this year. Gold reserves from allied countries were effectively confiscated as security for this help (including those of the UK) and there is therefore an argument that US activity was at least partly mercenary in nature.
Not one more word should leave this keyboard before presenting the other side of the case. WW2 is probably the nearest the world has ever come to a "just" war - and despite the odious right-wing and anti-Semitic views of the Kennedy and Ford clans, the USA did come to generally realise the evils being perpetrated by Germany at that time. Although entry into the war only came when its own self-interest was threatened by Japan, it is incontrovertible that a large number of brave Americans died in foreign theatres of war (what a horrible and misleading phrase that is!!) in pursuit of that conflict.
The problem with victory in any conflict is that it carries with it immense responsibilities towards the vanquished - as both Truman and Marshall nobly realised. Where I suspect they did not think forward enough was the effect on their own national psyche of coming to such power. The Cold War never seriously saw the military supremacy of the US or NATO challenged. The Russian threat had to be nuclear - their technologies and military structures would never have been able to sustain a conventional war and from this a misplaced sense of superiority arose, the ugly truth of which is now being trumpeted all over the world as a result of the Wikileaks fiasco.
Many years ago, in my University days at Oxford, I spent many long hours with friends from US universities, mainly Harvard and Princeton, that were close to tears because they had been unprepared for the much higher standards expected in the European system. Even now, the academic institution I remain associated with takes a much higher proportion of eastern European graduate students than Americans - for a number of reasons, none of which redound to the credit of the US educational system. What hurt my friends at Oxford most was the way they felt lied to - they really had been fed a daily diet of superiority. This is not a side-swipe but an observation about one of many ways that much of what is truly good and great about that country is lost to the need to tell each other daily how great they are, something that can only ultimately be born of insecurity.
One strange phenomenon gives me great hope - something seems to happen once Americans leave their shores. I would be fascinated to know what the democrat/republican split is among expatriates. My feeling is that the liberal/leftish tendency is much more heavily represented. Most also seem to feel that our standard of living in Europe is much higher - in which I concur, but that will inevitably be gainsaid by those deluded into believing it can be measured in mere money.
All of this is merely a background rumbling to my thoughts on the Wikileaks situation. The snake-oil salesman seems to have been revealed for what he is, and if one were to believe the world's press this morning, the borders are about to be shut up and the USA excommunicated from the communion of civilised societies. But is this fair or even reasonable?
Sir Thomas Gresham once defined a diplomat as an honest man sent abroad to lie for his country. Diplomacy is, by definition, a two-faced art. I should be proud the only exam I have ever failed in my life was the diplomatic service exam in that case! Of course the truth, or a version of it, is always going to be partly submerged in the demotic language and thoughts of those involved. In the dealing room of Lehmans in New York, Martin Luther King Day was referred to as "Some ****** died and we get a day off to go skiing" day. Yes the word had an "n" at the front and those responsible were not, to the best of my knowledge racist or bigots - it was the patois of the room, generally decent family men and women. Similarly I can see some of the comments revealed by Wikileaks being in the same vein - totally unacceptable, but only when released to the wider world.
Assange may have done nobody a service by these leaks - where do we go to express an unpopular view, where do we make the bad jokes? It was possible stupid to write some of the things being leaked, undoubtedly stupid not to keep them secure and horrifically stupid not to react with more humility when they did escape. Even so, I do not doubt that other security and diplomatic services have comparable skeletons in their cupboards. Anything that prevents anyone from expressing an honest opinion, no matter how distasteful, is to be deplored - and all the more so if that prevention takes the form of the opinion being expressed in carefully-redacted, politically correct new-speak, without passion or conviction.
Dum Spiro Spero
Saturday 27 November 2010
A lovely seasonal true story.
In going through my archives, I came across this tale. It brought me close to tears as I originally wrote it - and on re-reading the same thing happened.
For nearly two years now, I have been selling donated stamp collections on behalf of various donors who wanted the proceeds donated to various charities. It is very time-consuming, often frustrating but always rewarding to be able to help. If anyone is interested, there is a little (slightly out of date) more to be found on my website at
http://www.dinsdaleonline.com/page6.html
There is one group that I keep selling (it has now changed hands 13 times) - and I keep being given it back for sale again by very kind donors. Thank you from the bottom of my heart. The story behind it is wonderful.
This is the story of how this item came to us.
As many of you know, since leaving the day-to-day cut and thrust of the City, I have dedicated a lot more of my time to trying to give a little back. To be specific, I am talking about my work with selling old stamp collections for charity as seen on my web site. I will always try to get in a shameless plug - look in your attics you lot!!!! I can always be reached on roy.dinsdale@dinsdaleonline.com
Recently I had an experience that I felt so simultaneously humbled and elated by, so much so that I wanted to share it. I had three meetings scheduled that day to go and look at some old stamp collections. The first was a lovely and caring man who was very typical of the people working with us - white, middle-class, professional; He had dug out three old albums belonging to long-dead Uncles.
"Reading" an old stamp collection can tell you a lot about the original owner. This was a well-presented collection, rich in India and Colonial stuff. No treasures, but a few hundred pounds once sold that will go to support Cancer Research. A thoroughly decent man. Next I visited someone who gave us a small but definitely valuable collection of Queen Victoria material. My problem was that I just could not warm to this man. He knew the value of his donation and was, by any measure I could apply, generous and trying to do good. He was clearly affluent and intelligent, but my intuition could just not get a handle on his motives. Silly, and almost certainly my character flaw rather than his, but it left me in a very pensive mood when I went to my third meeting.
The address gave no clues, but turned out to be a large block of sheltered flats in a huge council estate. I am ashamed to say that I set the alarm on my car carefully as I went in. Just inside the door I was pounced on as I blundered into "Old Ladies Singsong Hour" and only after promising to stop and have a cuppa with them on my way out was I able to escape.
I buzzed the lift intercom to J, my next meeting, and was met as I got out of the lift by a tiny black man of clearly advanced years (87 as it turns out) wearing running shorts and a string vest leaping down the corridor with an outstretched hand and a smile so big it seemed to go before him. Once inside his tiny flat, I got some tea and a life history -which was, in any case, set out in photos on his walls. Born in Ghana, with photos of his induction into being a Chief in his Tribe and shaking hands at Independence with Kwame Nkrumah, he came to England and suffered from the outset - the usual stuff - discrimination at all levels and a refusal to see his obvious good nature and intelligence.
He had two bright daughters that left this septic isle at the first chance and who travelled the world, writing to him and sending a few brightly-coloured stamps from wherever they were and collecting from friends in Ghana. One of his beloved daughters was recently killed in a car smash and J’s thought was to raise a little cash to donate to the appeal from the hospital that cared for her. I left with an envelope of relatively modern stamps that a dealer would call worthless, but for many hours now I have been pondering on that word and rethinking (yet again) a few of my values.
Fortunately I am given some discretion as to which charity by many donors, so I think J. will be delighted at quite how much his stamps will raise :-) I also think I have found a new friend.
It is not for me to lead any of you to conclusions about generosity and motives, but I found the day quite challenging.
Yes - the little old ladies did get the benefit of my fine high Tenor. "Daisy Daisy" and "Tipperary" if I remember correctly.
At times like this I really do mean what I end every blog with
Dum Spiro Spero
For nearly two years now, I have been selling donated stamp collections on behalf of various donors who wanted the proceeds donated to various charities. It is very time-consuming, often frustrating but always rewarding to be able to help. If anyone is interested, there is a little (slightly out of date) more to be found on my website at
http://www.dinsdaleonline.com/page6.html
There is one group that I keep selling (it has now changed hands 13 times) - and I keep being given it back for sale again by very kind donors. Thank you from the bottom of my heart. The story behind it is wonderful.
This is the story of how this item came to us.
As many of you know, since leaving the day-to-day cut and thrust of the City, I have dedicated a lot more of my time to trying to give a little back. To be specific, I am talking about my work with selling old stamp collections for charity as seen on my web site. I will always try to get in a shameless plug - look in your attics you lot!!!! I can always be reached on roy.dinsdale@dinsdaleonline.com
Recently I had an experience that I felt so simultaneously humbled and elated by, so much so that I wanted to share it. I had three meetings scheduled that day to go and look at some old stamp collections. The first was a lovely and caring man who was very typical of the people working with us - white, middle-class, professional; He had dug out three old albums belonging to long-dead Uncles.
"Reading" an old stamp collection can tell you a lot about the original owner. This was a well-presented collection, rich in India and Colonial stuff. No treasures, but a few hundred pounds once sold that will go to support Cancer Research. A thoroughly decent man. Next I visited someone who gave us a small but definitely valuable collection of Queen Victoria material. My problem was that I just could not warm to this man. He knew the value of his donation and was, by any measure I could apply, generous and trying to do good. He was clearly affluent and intelligent, but my intuition could just not get a handle on his motives. Silly, and almost certainly my character flaw rather than his, but it left me in a very pensive mood when I went to my third meeting.
The address gave no clues, but turned out to be a large block of sheltered flats in a huge council estate. I am ashamed to say that I set the alarm on my car carefully as I went in. Just inside the door I was pounced on as I blundered into "Old Ladies Singsong Hour" and only after promising to stop and have a cuppa with them on my way out was I able to escape.
I buzzed the lift intercom to J, my next meeting, and was met as I got out of the lift by a tiny black man of clearly advanced years (87 as it turns out) wearing running shorts and a string vest leaping down the corridor with an outstretched hand and a smile so big it seemed to go before him. Once inside his tiny flat, I got some tea and a life history -which was, in any case, set out in photos on his walls. Born in Ghana, with photos of his induction into being a Chief in his Tribe and shaking hands at Independence with Kwame Nkrumah, he came to England and suffered from the outset - the usual stuff - discrimination at all levels and a refusal to see his obvious good nature and intelligence.
He had two bright daughters that left this septic isle at the first chance and who travelled the world, writing to him and sending a few brightly-coloured stamps from wherever they were and collecting from friends in Ghana. One of his beloved daughters was recently killed in a car smash and J’s thought was to raise a little cash to donate to the appeal from the hospital that cared for her. I left with an envelope of relatively modern stamps that a dealer would call worthless, but for many hours now I have been pondering on that word and rethinking (yet again) a few of my values.
Fortunately I am given some discretion as to which charity by many donors, so I think J. will be delighted at quite how much his stamps will raise :-) I also think I have found a new friend.
It is not for me to lead any of you to conclusions about generosity and motives, but I found the day quite challenging.
Yes - the little old ladies did get the benefit of my fine high Tenor. "Daisy Daisy" and "Tipperary" if I remember correctly.
At times like this I really do mean what I end every blog with
Dum Spiro Spero
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